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Orrery research

Evidence-led analysis of geopolitical developments.

Examine regional developments through published research, original sources and the evidence connecting them. Begin with the Taiwan Strait.

How we examine evidence

Featured research

Assessment · Published · v1

The reported sequence supports a moderate-confidence bounded judgment about the ministry’s publications, not total PLA activity.Translation unavailable; showing original.

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Scope
Evidence
6 recorded citations
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Publication register

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Assessment

Assessment: bounded interpretation of Taiwan MND’s 24–26 September reportingTranslation unavailable; showing original.

The reported sequence supports a moderate-confidence bounded judgment about the ministry’s publications, not total PLA activity.Translation unavailable; showing original.

· Published · v1
Evidence Synthesis

Evidence Synthesis: Taiwan MND daily activity reports, 24–26 September 2026Translation unavailable; showing original.

The evidence package contains authenticated ministry releases, groups duplicate representations, and preserves the single-source-family limitation.Translation unavailable; showing original.

· Published · v1
Factual Update

Factual Update: Taiwan MND’s reported 24–26 September activity sequenceTranslation unavailable; showing original.

Reported aircraft sorties changed from 10 to 2 to 5 across the three ministry windows; this is a change in the ministry-reported series, not a claim about total activity.Translation unavailable; showing original.

· Published · v1

Methodology and evidence

From source to judgment.

Observations, derived metrics and assessments have different roles. Inspect the record before interpreting its significance.

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Preserve the source

Source views distinguish original excerpts from translations and record acquisition time and version.

Trace the evidence

Published products connect judgments to citations. Shared source origins do not establish independent corroboration.

Keep uncertainty visible

Missing reports, unresolved geography and unpublished assessments remain explicit.

Geographic exploration

Global Situation Room

Explore admitted public observations in geographic context. Availability varies by source, place and time.

Open Situation Room