How Orrery approaches uncertainty

These principles guide Orrery’s development. Live intelligence, historical replay and forecast evaluation are not yet available.

Observe, interpret, forecast

A source report is distinct from a supported claim. An event is an interpretation of evidence. A forecast is a probability attached to a defined future outcome. Orrery keeps these roles distinct.

Preserve what was known

Later discoveries must not become earlier knowledge. Historical views will use validated, committed knowledge boundaries. A source’s publication date or a processing timestamp cannot establish when information became eligible for analysis.

Exact clock-time historical requests will require a certified recorded boundary. Where one is unavailable, Orrery must say so.

Make probability accountable

Forecasts will retain their questions, horizons, probabilities, revision histories and resolution rules. Evaluation will distinguish live forecasts from retrospective research and show coverage and sample size. No performance record is claimed in this preview.

Respect evidence limits

Disagreement and missing information should remain visible. Access and source rights may limit what can be shown or replayed; replacement evidence must not silently rewrite an original record.